Portland, Oregon

Portland, Oregon

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Butterflies and Jitters

Thursday morning Bob will have a barium swallow test done. Since the hematologist doesn't want him having invasive procedures this seems the most benign way to check his stomach. He is continuing to lose weight. It is not loss of appetite. He looks forward to eating but only eats a few bites before he feels too full to eat anymore.
_________________________

The closer election day comes the more butterflies and jitters I have.

I'll admit it, I am a poll watcher of the worst kind. I'm a belt and suspenders person. I need a plan and then a backup plan. There are polls and then there are polls if you get my drift.

Barack Obama ran probably the best campaign ever in 2008 and again in 2012. He's the first president to use everything available in this age of the Internet. This election I followed on Twitter the people that ran his two campaigns. I figured I could trust their opinions.

Nate Silver from 'Five-Thirty-Eight' is the pollster at the top of my list as well as the WSJ/NBC poll. It's a real jungle out there for polling. You can find a poll to agree with you for just about anything, but are they correct?

In 2012 Republicans were stunned when Mitt Romney lost. I well remember watching Karl Rove melt down on TV. I was stunned they didn't know they were losing. I wondered what polls they'd been watching.

Because it's jitters time I looked this week to see what I could find to explain how they got their numbers so wrong. Apparently the polls they were seeing were not wrong, they just chose not to believe them. I can imagine Karl Rove looking at a poll and saying it had to be wrong because blacks would not vote in high numbers a second time for Obama, that kind of thing.

In the past Hillary has not run good campaigns but this time around it's been much better. She got rid of the sleeze like Mark Penn that ran her campaign in 2008. She brought in some very sharp younger people with the expierenced John Podesta and it's gone very well. Some are veterans of Obama's campaigns.

Donald Trump is constantly announcing the polls show him winning, really? That's when it's good to know the difference in good polls and bad polls. Frankly I don't know how the Trump campaign would know anything given it's state of disorganization.

Looking back at history there were some surprises on election day but surely not these days

Do you have butterflies and jitters?

16 comments:

  1. I do have butterflies and the jitters. I know the polls are favoring Hillary and I'm afraid that fact alone will make a few democrats stay home and not vote. This is going to be a close election and that fact scares me too. How did we grow a population who is so easily taken in by a con-man and/or just don't care about our society that they would purposely elect an unqualified and ill-tempered person for such an important job? The Republicans need to rebuild their party and let the Trumpettes break off on their own party.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both parties have serious work to be done after this election, not the same issues but still a lot of work. Can't say I'm convinced either party will do what's needed.

      Delete
  2. Butterflies and jitters big time. I've never before been so frightened that a certain candidate (Trump) could win. I can't find a single reason to vote for him. I've decided his followers are of the same "up yours" attitude toward perceived enemies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TV pundits and pollsters play the race as being very close, even if it isn't, in an effort to down voter apathy. That always makes me nervous.

      Delete
  3. Scary? Agreed! One disturbing thought is that people who are angry speak out (and likely vote) more than those less riled up. Since Trump's campaign is fueled by vitriol and mean-spiritedness, I'm nervous indeed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Democrats have got to learn to speak up and push back. They've always been prone to voter apathy.

      Delete
  4. Trying not to have a stroke over the thought of a Donald Trump presidency, as you well know.

    I hope nothing serious is found on the test.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to go lay on a beach somewhere, far away from all forms of communication, until November 9.

      Delete
  5. No, I am not nervous. I am confident the Hillary will win. I can hardly wait to see the results. I am most concerned about Congress. Looks like the Dems could take back the Senate, but maybe just miss taking the House.
    Tom loves polls, but I don't pay any attention to them. They remind me of the fickleness of the stock market. However the wind is blowing that day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to share your secret for being so confident. Polls can be fickle, that is true. I don't guess I know what to watch to be so confident without polls. In my heart of hearts I don't think it's going to be a narrow victory, neither do I think it will be a landslide. A comfortable margin would be nice.

      I think there's a reasonable chance Dems will win the Senate. Looks unlikely for the House, but picking up a number of seats would certainly help, and give Speaker Ryan a huge headache.

      Delete
  6. I think we'll be surprised by how much Trump gets thumped. He now has too much baggage and has become known as someone who's very unstable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Common common sense tells me this is true but I've lost a lot of confidence in the American voter. I hope November 8 restores me confidence.

      Delete
    2. Exactly. The whole world is asking what USA is this? Americans are asking who are these people? We, ourselves, do not know. Where have all our ideological values gone? Our morally? One man has brought us so low? I weep.

      Delete
  7. I am nervous just because I never, ever thought the Trump candidacy would be taken for anything but a joke. I was seriously wrong about that. Some take it very seriously and that scares me. He does continue to state he will win. Even though I really don't know the color of the sky in his alternative world, I will be slightly nervous until it is over. If it ever is over.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I subscribe to the "Don't count your chickens before they're hatched." philosophy presently. I find it troubling that polls in certain battleground states, especially, Ohio, fluctuate so much on the least little thing this close to Election Day.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Poor Bob. That's nerve racking.

    I'm nervous about the election too. The latest poll is showing Hillary's lead getting smaller again. Arrrghhhh...

    My cousin is an extreme Christian and posted something on Facebook that a friend from his church wrote saying that Hillary would bring in Islam and ETC. I couldn't let it go and posted a short comment about the 1st amendment being Freedom of Religion and how we need to respect all religions. I ended up getting a lot of vitriol from the original writer about Islam being for pedophilia, abortion, keeping women enslaved, etc. And on and on. It was disgusting. But this is what Hillary is having to fight against. There's so much racism and prejudice out there. It's spooky.

    ReplyDelete